Expected: increased by 2.0%
The former value: 0.2%
Pre-events and market reaction:
December 24, 2009, the United States in November durable goods orders
rose 0.2%, after rising 0.5 percent forecast.
Since December 24 for Christmas Eve, the United States closed the day
data is not comparable.
November 25, U.S. October durable goods orders fell 0.6 percent
monthly rate, the former values have increased by 0.5%.
The euro / dollar in the data fell within 1 hour after the release of
19 points, the final day down 63 points.
The incident analysis and prediction:
U.S. durable goods orders for December are expected to increase by
2.0%, the U.S. economic growth may be further demonstrated to improve
the signal. Released by the U.S. Commerce Department report showed
November factory orders up 1.1%, which is expected to rise 0.5% after
more than twice, while the December ISM manufacturing index jumped to
55.9, the former value of 53.6, as since April 2006 the highest value.
Over the same period of the chain store sales increased 2.8%. However,
in December retail sales fell 0.3% in November consumer credit to
reduce 17.5 billion U.S. dollars, is that the data in 1943 the largest
decline since records began.
Previously published in the Federal Reserve Beige Book, 12 districts
in 10 areas of economic activity improved in most areas of housing
sales increase; however Beige Book said the labor market remains weak,
which continued to suppress the growth of wages. Wednesday the U.S.
Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged time to reiterate the
cost of borrowing will be more time to maintain a low level. The Fed
said the economic situation continued to improve, said the
deterioration in the labor market may be weakening again anticipated a
rebound.
Widely expected by economists, the United States in December durable
goods orders for the second consecutive month on rates will rise, so
the dollar upside risk. If the December durable goods orders rose by
2.0% as expected, or more, it will promote a stronger dollar, so that
the euro / dollar fell, investors may be creation of the euro / dollar
short positions, but should set up a proper stop-loss position, as
well as when the profit-taking.
On the contrary, Ruoyin on worries about slowing economic recovery, or
to make anonymous and businesses cut spending, then the December
durable goods orders fall or accident, then it would be the dollar.
Therefore, if the December durable goods orders increased by 1.0% or
smaller extent, then the dollar will be under pressure to go soft,
investors may choose creation of the euro / dollar long positions.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment